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The World's Most Vulnerable Economies

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  •  The Covid-19 crisis has exposed major external weaknesses in emerging and resilient economies. They are caused by severe shocks in supply and demand, disruptions in the supply chain, as well as wide-ranging stress in the currency, bond and commodities markets.

Having analyzed the situation in 95 countries of the world, the German agency Scope Ratings has compiled rating of states by vulnerability and resilience to external economic risks . All economies were evaluated according to two parameters:

1. Vulnerability to a potential balance of payments crisis (lack of international reserves to support the national currency).
2. The degree of stability of the economy to an external crisis.

Rating	Country	Vulnerability	Stability	Total
1	Switzerland	9.1	7.3	16.4
2	Malta	7	9.4	16.4
3	Japan	6.7	9.4	16.2
4	China	6.5	9.6	16.1
5	Germany	7.4	8	15.3
6	Belgium	7	8.3	15.3
7	Singapore	7.5	7.5	15.1
8	Italy	6.4	8.6	15
9	Slovenia	6.4	8.4	14.8
10	Norway	6.3	8.5	14.7
11	South Korea	6.4	8.1	14.5
12	India	5.7	8.8	14.5
13	Hong Kong	7.3	6.8	14.1
14	Netherlands	7.5	6.6	14.1
15	Denmark	7.3	6.7	14
16	Israel	7.4	6.7	14
17	Lithuania	5.9	8.2	14
18	Slovakia	5.4	8.6	14
19	Estonia	5.8	8.3	14
20	U.S.	4.6	9.4	14
21	Thailand	5.4	8.5	13.9
22	Spain	5	8.8	13.8
23	Austria	6.5	7.2	13.7
24	Canada	6.6	6.9	13.6
25	Saudi Arabia	7.1	6.4	13.5
26	Malaysia	6.8	6.7	13.5
27	Latvia	5.2	8.3	13.5
28	Finland	6.6	6.8	13.4
29	Portugal	4.8	8.5	13.3
30	France	5.9	7.5	13.3
31	Luxembourg	7	6.3	13.3
32	Vietnam	6.5	6.6	13.1
33	Australia	4.4	8.7	13.1
34	Algeria	4.5	8.4	12.9
35	Sweden	5.8	7	12.8
36	Philippines	6.3	6.5	12.8
37	New Zealand	3.4	9.3	12.7
38	Greece	5.1	7.3	12.4
39	The Czech Republic	5.3	6.8	12.1
40	Hungary	5.1	7	12.1
41	Russia	4.3	7.7	12
42	Cyprus	5.3	6.7	12
43	United Kingdom	5	6.9	11.9
44	Ireland	4.9	7	11.8
45	Bulgaria	5.6	6.2	11.8
46	Guatemala	6.6	5.1	11.7
47	Bangladesh	6.2	5.4	11.6
48	Poland	5.3	6.3	11.6
49	Botswana	4.6	6.9	11.5
50	Kazakhstan	4.9	6.6	11.4
51	Nicaragua	5.9	5.4	11.3
52	Brazil	3	8.1	11.2
53	Bolivia	5.1	5.9	11
54	Nepal	5.3	5.6	11
55	South Africa	4.3	6.7	11
56	Honduras	5.9	5	10.9
57	Mexico	3.3	7.5	10.8
58	Iceland	4	6.5	10.5
59	Kyrgyzstan	5.2	5.3	10.5
60	Bosnia and Herzegovina	6	4.5	10.4
61	Romania	5.5	4.8	10.3
62	Croatia	6.4	3.8	10.2
63	Serbia	5.8	4.3	10.2
64	Moldova	4.9	5.2	10.1
65	Chile	4.6	5.5	10.1
66	Indonesia	4	6	10
67	Azerbaijan	4.8	5.1	9.9
68	Peru	5.5	4.4	9.9
69	Congo (DR)	4	5.7	9.7
70	Pakistan	4	5.7	9.7
71	Rwanda	4.8	4.8	9.7
72	The Dominican Republic	5.2	4.3	9.5
73	Egypt	4.4	5	9.4
74	Albania	5.2	4.1	9.4
75	Nigeria	3.9	5.1	9
76	North Macedonia	5.9	3	8.9
77	Colombia	2.7	6.2	8.9
78	Uzbekistan	6.1	2.7	8.8
79	Paraguay	5.1	3.6	8.8
80	Ukraine	4.7	3.9	8.6
81	Cambodia	4.9	3.6	8.5
82	Kenya	4.7	3.7	8.4
83	Ghana	4.5	3.8	8.3
84	Gabon	4.5	3.5	8
85	Costa Rica	4	3.9	7.9
86	Turkey	2.9	4.8	7.7
87	Armenia	4.6	3	7.6
88	Argentina	3.8	3.8	7.6
89	Sri Lanka	3.9	3.3	7.2
90	Belarus	4.1	2.9	7
91	Salvador	4.7	2.3	6.9
92	Georgia	3.5	2.3	5.8
93	Angola	2.5	3.3	5.8
94	Zambia	2.6	3.2	5.8
95	Lebanon	1.2	2.3	3.5

See also: World Economies Ranking 2021.

World's Most Vulnerable Economies 2021

  •  Lebanon, Zambia and Angola are among the top three riskiest economies. They are extremely vulnerable to external crises.

  •  Also in the top ten are:

• Georgia,
• Salvador,
• Belarus,
• Sri Lanka,
• Argentina,
• Armenia,
• Turkey.

  •  These countries share common features such as the widespread use of foreign exchange, the vulnerability of the national currency during periods of risk aversion among international investors, and the risk of capital outflow exacerbated by low foreign exchange reserves and/or large maturing foreign debt.

  •  Several of the world's weakest economies – Argentina, Zambia and Lebanon – defaulted on their external debt amid the Covid-19 crisis. And according to Scope experts, the risk of further negative credit events in 2022 is high.

The most stable economies in the world

  •  Here is what a dozen countries look like that can successfully weather the global economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

1. Switzerland.
2. Malta.
3. Japan.
4. China.
5. Germany.
6. Belgium.
7. Singapore
8. Italy.
9. Slovenia.
10. Norway.

  •  The United States is on the 20th line of the list "in the overall standings." Nevertheless, this country ranks third in the world in terms of resilience, largely due to the hegemony of the dollar (59,2% of world reserves were held in dollars as of QXNUMX).

The place of Russia and its closest neighbor countries in the ranking of the most vulnerable economies in the world

  •  As an emerging market country, Russia, despite being highly vulnerable to capital flight, foreign sanctions and the historical instability of the ruble, is demonstrating resilience to crisis scenarios by reorienting the economy towards self-sufficiency (autarky).

  •  Russia's public debt is small, about 20% of GDP, and is mostly denominated in rubles. International reserves rose to $622 billion as of October 22, nearly five times the external debt.

  •  However, the economic indicators of our country deteriorated, and it moved down 21 lines (41st place). US and European sanctions remain a deterrent to FDI inflows. And low confidence in the ruble has a negative impact on the business and investment climate in the country. The risk of additional external sanctions remains elevated.

  •  Among the economies of Central and Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, the most fragile economies were:

1. Georgia.
2. Belarus.
3. Armenia.
4. Turkey.

  •  Ukraine and Azerbaijan are also among the highest-risk economies, with Ukraine far below Russia on the list (80th out of 95). However, the position of the Independent has improved compared to 2018, when it was one of the global top three most “unfortunate” economies out of 63 countries of the world.

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