10 largest economies in the world by 2030
Contents:
• In a decade, the world's largest economic centers will look very different than they do today. China will dominate the world, India will outstrip the United States, and Egypt's economic growth will be so explosive that it will become one of the top ten largest economies in the world. These are the forecasts of Standard Chartered Bank, a British multinational banking and financial company.
• Visual Capitalist compared Standard Chartered Bank's forecasts for 2030 with the latest IMF GDP (PPP) data for 2017.
| Place | Country | GDP forecast (2030, PPP) | GDP (2017, PPP) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | $ 64.2 trillion | $ 23.2 trillion | + 177 % |
| 2 | India | $ 46.3 trillion | $ 9.5 trillion | + 387 % |
| 3 | U.S. | $ 31.0 trillion | $ 19.4 trillion | + 60 % |
| 4 | Indonesia | $ 10.1 trillion | $ 3.2 trillion | + 216 % |
| 5 | Turkey | $ 9.1 trillion | $ 2.2 trillion | + 314 % |
| 6 | Brazil | $ 8.6 trillion | $ 3.2 trillion | + 169 % |
| 7 | Egypt | $ 8.2 trillion | $ 1.2 trillion | + 583 % |
| 8 | Russia | $ 7.9 trillion | $ 4.0 trillion | + 98 % |
| 9 | Japan | $ 7.2 trillion | $ 5.4 trillion | + 33 % |
| 10 | Germany | $ 6.9 trillion | $ 4.2 trillion | + 64 % |
PPP (eng. PPP) – purchasing power parity.
Top 10 largest economies in the world in 2030
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Forecast methodology
• Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank made their conclusions after studying the countries' exchange rates at purchasing power parity and nominal GDP.
• In the future, emerging markets should catch up with developed countries, which is explained by their convergence in terms of GDP per capita. In other words, as a country's output begins to match its population, this can mean a lot in densely populated countries such as Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, and Egypt.
Develop, multiply and prosper
• According to Standard Chartered, Asian economies will be on the rise in the next decade, and will take the majority of places in the ten largest economies in the world.
• Last year, the Asian piece of the global GDP pie rose to 28%, up from 2010% in 20. It is likely to reach 2030% by 35, which is the same as Europe and the United States combined. And this is not surprising. The total world population is expected to exceed 2030 billion by 8,5. Moreover, the majority (about 5 billion) will live in Asian countries.
• At the same time, according to Standard Chartered's forecast, the majority of the world's population – about 5,4 billion people – will enter the middle class by 2030 in terms of their income. For comparison: in 2015, there were only three billion people in the world who could qualify for entry into the middle class.
• Both China and India are predicted to overtake the US as the world's largest and second largest economies, respectively. The US will drop to third place.
Egypt starts and wins
• Of all the countries on this list, Egypt has the brightest outlook. He will make the biggest "economic leap". According to experts from Standard Chartered, the only Middle Eastern country in the top ten will move from the 21st place of the world's most developed economies to the 7th place over the next decade. This leap coincides with a 30 percent increase in the country's population, to 128 million by 2030.
• In other words, between 2017 and 2030, the Egyptian economy will grow by 583 percent. And the country's GDP for the same period will increase from 1,2 trillion. dollars to 8,2 trillion. dollars.
What awaits the Russian economy by 2030
• But with the Russian economy, not everything is as good as with the Egyptian one. The Russian economy is expected to fall from sixth to eighth place on the list.
- However, Standard Chartered experts reassure that our country's economy will still grow at a significant pace, despite Western sanctions.
- According to the World Bank's economic forecast released in January, the Russian Federation's GDP growth should rise to 1,8 percent in 2020 and beyond.
- According to the International Monetary Fund, Western sanctions will be offset by rising world oil prices. This will have a positive effect on the Russian economy.
- According to a report by Standard Chartered Bank, by 2030 Russia's GDP will be $7,9 trillion.
Conclusions
• What can be seen from this study is that the global economy is reconfiguring itself quite quickly, causing changes that require a response from any rational investor trying to maximize long-term returns.
• Simply put, if countries like China, India, Brazil, Egypt, and Russia are on a solid and long-term growth path, it makes sense to invest in participating in that growth.
• If Standard Chartered's forecasts come true, then countries such as Canada, France and the UK will be knocked out of the top ten world economies.
